Status of IPv4 blocks for Phase 3

We would like to share with you a brief report on the status of IPv4  blocks for Phase 3, i.e., the blocks reserved under policy 11.1  according to which blocks will only be allocated to new members.  We've also conducted an analysis to estimate the date of Phase 3 IPv4  exhaustion.   The space reserved for Phase 3 is currently comprised of the following  blocks:

• Block initially reserved under the policy. This block comprises 32 /16  blocks, totaling the equivalent of a /11 (2,097,152 IP addresses). 
• Returned/Recovered blocks (including NIRs). This block comprises  several blocks, with a total of 681,472 IP addresses (slightly more than  a /13). 
• Blocks we have received and will continue to receive until March 2018  from the IANA. This includes several blocks of different sizes which  total 4,044,800 IP addresses (almost the equivalent of a 1 /10).   The result is 6,823,424 IP addresses, 3.25 times more than the current  phase (Phase 2).  

Furthermore, we've analyzed INITIAL allocation trends (new members)  since June 2014 and extrapolated these numbers in order to estimate a  date for Phase 3 IPv4 exhaustion (assuming that Phase 3 will begin in  March 2016).

The result we obtained was April 2025. Keep in mind, however, that allocation trends may change once Phase 3 is  triggered, so this date is  merely an estimate.   Is it really better for the community to allow this to run its course  and let IPv4 addresses run out slowly? Or would you rather propose a new  policy that will lead to a better management of the remaining resources?

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